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Fetching US economic indicators.
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This website displays economic indicators and data sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other public sources. It is designed to help you understand economic conditions, not to guide financial decisions.
The Composite Risk Score and all signal indicators are illustrative tools only. They are not statistical models, are not calibrated for predictive accuracy, and should not be interpreted as forecasts of future economic conditions.
Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
By continuing, you confirm that you understand this site is for educational and informational purposes only.
The Chauvet-Piger model estimates the probability that the US economy is currently in recession using a dynamic factor model applied to four monthly indicators: non-farm payrolls, industrial production, real personal income, and real manufacturing sales. It is published monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with a lag of approximately 2-3 months.